“Polling throughout the race gave us insights into the broader outlines of the contest.”

Polling throughout the race also gave us insights into the broader outlines of the contest, from the big picture to the importance of various issues.

All U.S. presidential elections are referenda on the incumbent administration in some way, and 2024 was no different. President Joe Biden’s administration was mired for years at 40% job approval. Harris was effectively running for Biden’s second term, especially with her inability to articulate a clearly different direction from Biden, capped by her devastating quote on “The View”that “there’s not a thing that comes to mind” that she would do differently than Biden had in the past four years. No incumbent administration has ever been reelected with 40% job approval, and Harris ran as a continuation of that unpopular administration.