Whit Ayres’ comments to NHK regarding the state of the presidential contest: Reporter: “You recently said that if the election were held today, former President Donald Trump would win the election. Why do you say that?” Ayres: “Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent President in America since Jimmy Carter, who lost to Ronald Reagan in...
Whit Ayres’ comments for The Washington Post on Donald Trump’s campaign style and Republican reactions: “Get used to it,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, a Trump critic. “This is your life for the next five months.” To read the full article, please click here.
From Whit Ayres’ op-ed in the WSJ on March 4: Republicans stand a slim chance of winning the presidency in 2016—unless they nominate a transformational candidate who can dramatically broaden the GOP’s appeal. That assertion may seem incongruous in light of stunning Republican triumphs in the past two midterm elections. But success in 2014 no...
Whit Ayres’ comments to ABC News regarding Donald Trump’s comeback victory: Key to Trump’s political staying power, strategists on both sides of the aisle said, is the way he’s managed to reorient the GOP’s image from “Country Club Republicans” to the party of the working class despite being a billionaire himself and despite some of...
“Polling throughout the race gave us insights into the broader outlines of the contest.”
Joe BidenKamala HarrisPresidential ContestWhit AyresNovember 8, 2024
Whit Ayres’ discussed polling accuracy in an op-ed for US News: Polling throughout the race also gave us insights into the broader outlines of the contest, from the big picture to the importance of various issues. All U.S. presidential elections are referenda on the incumbent administration in some way, and 2024 was no different. President...
Whit Ayres was cited by E.J. Dionne in his column exploring Donald Trump’s victory: The facts were part of a slide that Republican pollster Whit Ayres regularly included in his pre-election presentations. Ayres would contrast the average inflation rate during Trump’s and Joe Biden’s presidencies (1 percent vs. 5 percent); interest rates (3 percent under...
“People are more willing to vote for their pocketbook.”
EconomyJon McHenryPresidential ContestTrumpNovember 7, 2024
Jon McHenry’s comments on NPR regarding Tuesday’s election results: In the end, Trump’s victory may have simply come down to an old political cliché: “It’s the economy, stupid.” “Ultimately what it says about President Trump’s win is that people are more willing to vote for their pocketbook,” said Republican pollster Jon McHenry. “They say, ‘I...
Jon McHenry’s comments to The Boston Globe regarding Republican gains in New England: Political strategists say Trump spoke more directly to those who worry about the cost of goods and the impact of the state’s surging migrant population in their communities. “Ultimately, what the results from yesterday say is that Republicans were more focused on...
Rallies Beyond the Swing States
Jon McHenryPolitical ClimatePresidential ContestSwing StatesNovember 4, 2024
Jon McHenry spoke with Franco Ordoñez with NPR to discuss Donald Trump’s rallies outside the swing states: https://www.npr.org/2024/11/03/nx-s1-5175599/trump-is-choosing-to-campaign-in-blue-states-will-the-risk-pay-off
“It’s like trying to get blood out of a stone.”
Presidential ContestVoter TurnoutWhit AyresNovember 4, 2024
Whit Ayres joined James Carville and Al Hunt on their Politics War Room podcast to talk about the state of the race in the last week: https://t.co/mr49WiDwhs
However, the Republican pollster Whit Ayres told me that he is seeing the same divergence between slipping non-white support and steady white backing for Harris in his surveys—and he sees good reasons for that pattern potentially persisting through Election Day. “The Hispanic and African American weakness [for Harris] is a function of a memory of...
“Pollsters risk simply weighting the result back to the Biden-Trump contest.”
Polling and MethodologyVoter TurnoutWhit AyresOctober 30, 2024
Whit Ayres spoke with The Morning Dispatch newsletter about polling and weighting results: Whit Ayres, the president of North Star Research, told TMD that any adjustments, whether based on class, party, or previous vote, that try to account for these voters are necessarily unproven. “There’s no question that a nonresponse bias, which is simply a...
“There’s really a small number in most political campaigns of voters who are truly persuadable.”
Dan JudyPolitical ClimatePresidential ContestOctober 29, 2024
Dan Judy’s comments in The Atlantic about persuadable voters: If people are tuning out, it might not matter much for the election results. Most people already know whom they’re going to vote for; the universe of truly undecided voters is very small—likely less than 15 percent of the electorate. “The vast, vast, vast majority of...
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