Whit Ayres’ comments in The Boston Globe regarding electability as a concern in the Republican nominating progress:
Trump is still viewed favorably by about two-thirds or more of Republicans, according to multiple surveys, but that doesn’t mean they’ll all vote for him again, said veteran Republican pollster, Whit Ayres. His current and potential competitors are beginning to make the case — with varying levels of directness — that voters should consider alternatives after the losses in the 2018 midterms, the 2020 general election, the 2021 Senate runoffs, and the 2022 midterms.
“If Republican primary voters come to believe that nominating Donald Trump in 2024 will lead Republicans to lose 5 national elections in a row,” said Ayres,“it then opens the door to other alternatives.”
According to Ayres’ polling and focus groups, about one-third of Republicans are what he calls “Always Trump” voters, who would cast a ballot for Trump no matter what. Ten percent of the party, he says, would never vote for the former president.
That leaves about 55 to 60 percent of Republicans who he considers “maybe Trump” voters — who voted for him twice and still like him, but are open to alternative candidates. And that is the group that other candidates need to convince with a pragmatic argument.
“It is one of the core arguments behind the ‘maybe Trump’ coalition, because they believe that Donald Trump could not win in 2024 and they want a candidate who can,” Ayres said. “Electability is a primary motivating force.”
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